Natural Time Analysis of Global Seismicity

Natural time analysis enables the introduction of an order parameter for seismicity, which is just variance natural χ, κ1=⟨χ2⟩−⟨χ⟩2. During last years, there has been significant progress in seismicity. Milestones this are identification clearly distiguishable minima fluctuations κ1 seismicity both regional and global scale, emergence interrelation between correlations earthquake (EQ) magnitude series these minima, by Turcotte, Rundle coworkers EQ nowcasting. Here, we apply all recent advances employing Global Centroid Moment Tensor (GCMT) catalog. We show that combination above three milestones may provide useful precursory information occurrence epicenter location strong EQs with M≥8.5 GCMT. This can be achieved high statistical significance (p-values 10−5), while epicentral areas lie within a region covering only 4% investigated.